Mark Pack

Much can be learnt from opinion polls, but a reminder of why not all results should be taken at face value is this:

If there were local council elections in your area on May 5th, how likely would you be to vote in them, where 0 means you will definitely not vote, and 10 means you definitely will vote?

10 – will definitely vote: 52%

This poll is not unusual in showing more people saying they will certainly vote than seems credible – and polls before previous elections (i.e. where we know the actual subsequent turnout) have often shown the number of people saying they’re certain to vote exceed the number who do. Where research has compared such results against the marked register, there is a relationship – the more likely people are to say they will vote, the more likely they actually are to vote, but even so a fair number of those “certain” to vote in reality aren’t.

This poll, by the way, was an online survey so the possible peer pressure from talking to a fellow human being and giving the answer you feel you should does not apply.