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How can a general election happen?

12 December 2011 ,

Events such as last week’s European summit still regularly produce a flurry of comment about how Cameron might / should / will / must call an early general election, written as if the rules on calling a general election have not changed.

But they have, for the Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011 is now in force and the sorts of calculations that were relevant during previous political excitements are no longer relevant. A Prime Minister can no longer simply call an early general election because they want to.

Instead, there are only two circumstances in which a general election can take place earlier than the scheduled five years after the previous one.

First, the House of Commons can vote for one – but the number of votes for must be equal to or greater than two thirds of the number of seats in the House (including vacant seats).

In other words, even if Cameron had a single-party  majority, he could not fix an early general election. Only a Prime Minister in possession of a landslide or cross-party agreement could vote one through under this provision.

The second route is if the House of Commons passes a vote of no confidence in the government (by a simple majority) and then fails within fourteen days to pass a motion of confidence in a new government.

In other words, if Cameron were to demand an early election, call a vote of no confidence in himself and even get his own party to vote for the motion – there is no general election. Instead, Ed Miliband would get the chance to form a government first. It is only if he – and everyone else – fails that there is then an early general election.

Hat-tip: Thanks to Richard Morris for the idea for this post.

UPDATE: For more on the mechanics of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, see my post Why David Cameron won’t be calling a snap general election

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8 comments
Sue Gilligan
Sue Gilligan

Wholly true and utterly relevant. Tory MP Mr Reckless was giving the 'none of us would want a general election, would we?' line on PM tonight on Radio 4, apparently forgetting that it is no longer up to Cameron. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act may prove to be the key achievement of the coalition (On this see Matt Cole's chapter in 'Prime Minister Boris', which foresees just this situation).

Mark Pack
Mark Pack

Agreed about its importance - and current circumstances show why Lib Dems thought it so important as part of going into coalition.

Robert Kaye
Robert Kaye

It would be very difficult for Labour, however, to oppose a motion for an early general election - especially as they did not accept the principle of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. Miliband could abstain - which would have the same impact in this case as a 'no', but without the responsibility - but it would extraordinarily weak.

Matthew Turner
Matthew Turner

Mark Pack I definitely agree with last sentence, but the Conservatives only need to find 10 MPs from other parties who don't want a Labour led govt. So definitely there's a risk, but presumably some of the regional parties might want an election as much as the Tories. Furthermore, in a normal majority situation it would be relatively easy (unless I suppose someone like David Davis did a deal and could bring over some Tories).

Mark Pack
Mark Pack

Matthew Turner Cameron only falls if the Lib Dems vote against him. So for an election the Lib Dems would need to vote against Cameron and then also decide they didn't want Miliband (as Lab + Lib Dem + others would in this circumstance win at least the confidence vote - however unstable the government might then be). Can you really imagine the Lib Dem MPs saying "we don't want either" - and not being wiped-out as a result? Pretty hard I think. Not impossible, but my point is that if Cameron tries to call an election by quitting he may well find instead that Miliband is in No.10 and no election. We can debate what percentage number to put on "may well", but whatever the number it's a lot bigger than it was under the old rules, viz zero.

Matthew Turner
Matthew Turner

Mark Pack But that would rely on almost every other party supporting him, wouldn't it? And if that is not likely, as it isn't, surely the Queen wouldn't appoint him to then find that out? She simply wouldn't appoint him, so Cameron still gets his election I think. [the barrier to me seems public opinion in that kind of behaviour, but I think you could probably make the case]

Mark Pack
Mark Pack

Robert - imagine the scenario: Cameron resigns, demands an election. Would it really be hard for Labour to say: "OK, resign if you want to, but the law says we get a chance first to form a government so that is just what we will do"? I don't think so at all, and the end result of Cameron's action wouldn't be an election but Miliband in No.10.

Ian Ochiltree
Ian Ochiltree

Realy useful and timely reminder on what has to happen in order for there to be an early General Election.

Trackbacks

  1. How can a general election happen? – http://t.co/AP1WheGr < New blog by me

  2. George Eaton says:

    How can a general election happen? Useful and timely blog by @markpack http://t.co/pz5q4V5g

  3. Tom Griffin says:

    How can a general election happen? Useful and timely blog by @markpack http://t.co/pz5q4V5g

  4. A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  5. Mick Fealty says:

    A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  6. A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  7. A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  8. Paul Waugh says:

    A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  9. Ian Nelson says:

    A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  10. How can a general election happen? @MarkPack on the possibilities now the fixed-term parliament bill is passed http://t.co/skFs5LMC

  11. Tom Gleeson says:

    A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  12. Dan Wilson says:

    A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  13. David Binder says:

    How can a general election happen? Useful and timely blog by @markpack http://t.co/pz5q4V5g

  14. A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  15. Peter Martin says:

    A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/TnLm7osr

  16. Paul Scully says:

    Before you put your money on early election –> RT @markpack: How can a general election happen? – http://t.co/kmfuGfGj

  17. RT @markpack: How can a general election happen? – http://t.co/iSaI4koW

  18. Luke Pollard says:

    RT @TimMontgomerie: A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/iRsibm3I

  19. My last tweet was after reading this great blog post by @markpack http://t.co/NCpSXpUO

  20. RT @TimMontgomerie: A reminder from @MarkPack that it's no longer simple to call a mid-term general election http://t.co/iRsibm3I

  21. On that early election, @markpack is of course right: "How can a general election happen? – http://t.co/sOXblUq2&quot;

  22. Gareth Price says:

    @davidcornock Yes it would – this helpful piece from Mark Pack explains why. http://t.co/fl7quz0P

  23. HT to @garprice this is an interesting piece about early elections… http://t.co/Cm67huU4”

  24. Dale Bassett says:

    As @markpack reminds us, it's basically impossible for Cameron to call a snap election @oflynnexpress http://t.co/KixZh7up

  25. [...] How can a general election happen? [...]

  26. John Brooks says:

    @HarryLangford from what i thought i dont think Cameron could call a election if he wanted http://t.co/DfmAfEaU

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