Nick Clegg’s NHS problem

There’s a striking finding in today’s Sunday Times/YouGov poll which carries a worrying message for Nick Clegg.

Asked which of the three main party leaders they most trusted on the NHS, 71% of Labour voters picked Ed Miliband, 61% of Conservative voters picked David Cameron but only 36% of Lib Dems picked Nick Clegg. That was a statistical dead heat with “none of them” who came in at 35% amongst Liberal Democrat voters. Amongst those who said at the time in May 2010 they were Liberal Democrat voters, the figures are even lower – just 15% pick Nick Clegg and another 45% pick “none of them”.

In part these findings reinforce the message from the exclusive YouGov analysis in my January monthly email newsletter – a large part of the lost Liberal Democrat support since May 2010 has gone to “don’t know” rather than being positively enthused by one of the other parties.

The findings also highlight how the spring 2012 Liberal Democrat conference may yet be as important for the NHS and the party’s political prospects as the spring 2011 one was. In 2011 the conference debate was instrumental in assisting Liberal Democrats in government from avoiding over-enthusiastic support for the Bill and instead demanding (successfully) a large number of changes to it.

Events of the last week suggests the party risks skirting with exactly the same danger once again, because the response to increasing Conservative rebellion on the NHS Bill has, so far, been to mutter complaints about its timing and its details, risking leaving the party officially in the weird position of being keener on Andrew Lansley’s bill than much of the Conservative Party. Once again, then, a Spring conference NHS debate may help not only turn the party away from a political cul-de-sac but also – more importantly – turn the situation into one that secures changes to health policy.