Electoral registration: it’s not a question of ethnicity

There’s an interesting conclusion in the latest research into varying levels of electoral registration amongst the population, this time from the Cabinet Office:

The regression result did not find, however, that BME groups were statistically less likely to be registered that their white peers who share otherwise the same characteristics. These results imply that a BME individual who is in privately rented accommodation is just as likely to be registered as a white peer who is in similar accommodation for example. This is most consistent with the EC’s most recent Winter Tracker which suggested that there was no significant difference in the registration rates of BME and white communities.

Note however that this result does not imply that there is no under registration in BME communities, only that ethnicity does not seem to be a driver for under registration. Certain BME groups for example are disproportionately overrepresented in the social housing sector8 which is under registered. Any underregistration, such as that found in the Electoral Commission previous 2011 report, could therefore be explained by the social housing variable (% of persons living in social housing) rather than ethnicity.

Deprivation, unemployment rates, socio-economic composition, religion, and education levels were also not confirmed as statistically significant factors driving under-registration across local authorities in England and Wales.

What does depress registration then? It is:

• Private renting (a group of people often, and wrongly, overlooked, not just when it comes to registration)
• Social renting;
• Residents born outside the UK (although this will also be due to ineligibility; some Commonwealth and EU citizens are also eligible to register and vote in their country of origin which may affect their registration rates in the UK);
• 18 – 24 year olds and students.

Or, if we turn to history rather than statistics, being a war-winning Prime Minister.