Mark Pack

David (Danny) Blanchflower was a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee 2006-9, and is best known for having been repeatedly in favour of cutting interest rates sooner and by more in the face of the worsening economic situation.

Here’s his take on where we are headed next:

In my view, unemployment will probably not start to fall before 2011. House prices are likely to fall by about 35% from peak to trough and more than three million households will be in negative equity…

We are faced with a toxic cocktail: sliding house prices, rising negative equity, inadequate levels of credit, soaring unemployment and zero – or even negative – wage growth. In such circumstances, it is academic to try to pinpoint whether economic growth is returning. We have yet to realise just how painful the coming years are likely to be. (RSA Journal, Autumn 2009)

Let’s hope he’s wrong…