Archive for General Election
Top twenty tables from the election results: part 2
Twenty largest swings from Conservatives to Liberal Democrats:
Redcar 14.5
Westmorland and Lonsdale 11.1
Ashfield 10.8
Dunfermline and Fife West 9.2
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 9.2
Maidstone and The Weald 8.5
Brent Central 7.5
Ceredigion 7.2
Sheffield Hallam 6.9
Orkney and Shetland 6.6
Spelthorne 6.1
Bosworth 5.9
Bromsgrove 5.9
Bath 5.8
Hull North 5.7
Leeds North West 5.4
Canterbury 5.4
Wycombe 4.8
Newport East 4.5
Lewisham East 4.5
Twenty largest swings from Liberal Democrats to Conservatives:
Hartlepool -15.0
Montgomeryshire -13.1
Orpington -12.2
St Ives -10.4
Cardiff Central -10.3
Meon Valley -9.4
Cornwall South East -9.1
Harrogate and Knaresborough -9.1
Winchester -9.1
Esher and Walton -9.0
Edinburgh West -8.7
Surrey South West -8.6
Berwick-upon-Tweed -8.3
Chesterfield -8.3
Crewe and Nantwich -8.3
Blaydon -8.2
Garston and Halewood -8.1
Windsor -8.1
Ludlow -7.8
Maidenhead -7.8
Top twenty tables from the election results: part 1
This is the first in a series of posts pulling out some of the constituency results which we’ll be running this week. The data is taken from Pippa Norris’s data set (for which thanks).
Twenty highest Liberal Democrat vote shares:
Orkney and Shetland 62.0
Westmorland and Lonsdale 60.0
Bath 56.6
Yeovil 55.7
Norfolk North 55.5
Twickenham 54.4
Sheffield Hallam 53.4
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 52.6
Lewes 52.0
Thornbury and Yate 51.9
Cheltenham 50.5
Ceredigion 50.0
Kingston and Surbiton 49.8
Southport 49.6
Taunton Deane 49.1
Hazel Grove 48.8
Bermondsey [...]
How general election vote shares have changed over the years
This graph shows the UK-wide vote shares for each of the three main parties, along with the total Conservative plus Labour share. As you can see, the proportion of people voting for one of the two largest parties dropped again this time, hitting another record post-war low.
The combination of this and our voting system means [...]
Looks like Lord Ashcroft flopped again
Back in March I doubted how good Lord Ashcroft’s target seat operation for the Conservatives might actually be, pointing out:
Here’s his own account of his record supporting target seats at the 2005 general election:
The national swing from Labour to Conservatives was 3.2 per cent, yet the swing in the seats which we supported was 3.8 [...]
Seat we just missed / just won
Thanks to Duncan Brack of the Liberal Democrat History Group for pulling this list together so near wins / misses spotted so far:
NEAR MISSES
Ashfield 192 (0.4%)
Edinburgh South 316 (0.7%)
Hampstead & Kilburn 799 (1.6%)
Oldham East & Saddleworth 103 (0.2%)
Sheffield Central 165 (0.4%)
Swansea West 504 (1.4%)
Camborne & Redruth 66 (0.2%)
Chesterfield 549 (1.2%)
Oxford West & Abingdon 176 (0.3%)
Rochdale [...]
My campaign highs and lows
On polling day The Times ran this piece from me: Campaign high point: Receiving a phone call out of the blue on a Saturday afternoon from a tabloid journalist normally doesn’t herald good news. But on Saturday 17th April it was someone ringing to check when the Liberal Democrats or their predecessors had last come [...]
Liberal Democrats: the seats to watch
Even after exit polls are published at 10:01pm on Thursday night, we’ll still all be on the edge of our seats for a good few hours waiting to see quite how the election will pan out. Here then are 10 seats to look out for through the first parts of the night that will give [...]
The significance of May 27th
One of the tragedies of the general election campaign was the death of John Boakes, UKIP candidate for Thirsk & Malton. As a result polling in the general election there has been delayed until May 27th.
These sorts of delayed polls happen thankfully rarely and are not usually of wider political significance. However, if the election [...]
How to vote
A few key pieces of information for polling day:
Polling stations are open between 7am and 10pm today. No votes can be cast after 10pm; it’s not like the shops where being in the queue at closing time is enough.
You don’t need your polling card to vote.
You have to vote at your local polling station, which [...]
Former Blair speechwriter says “Vote Lib Dem”
Another interesting straw in the wind is the column in today’s Evening Standard from Andrew Neather, speechwriter to Tony Blair 2001-2. It ends:
PR is what we need, for future elections not to render results as illogical as 1983, 2005, or, I fear, this Thursday. Nick Clegg is right: only such thoroughgoing reform will break up [...]
