Six months out, what does the past tell us about how much change to expect before polling day?

Lewis Baston has a typically interesting piece over on ConservativeHome looking at what past patterns in opinion polls suggests could happen this time round in the run up to May 2015:

Governments gain more often than oppositions: if my Conservative-supporting readers want some comfort, there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months. Most of the best Conservative showings, though, are from the 1979-92 period when the party was most dominant in campaign skills and funding, and polling was inaccurate.

But for the pessimists (and UKIP supporters) among you, people clearly do not abandon their flirtations with ‘minor’ parties and go back to the big two when the election draws near.

Nice too to see another outing for my polling dataset which Lewis used as one of his data sources. Do grab a look yourself – it’s available for free.

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