Timing the alternative vote (AV) referendum

When should the Government’s promised referendum on introducing the alternative vote (as already used in the Lords in multiple ways) for elections to the House of Commons be held? That’s the question causing a fair amount of debate at the heart of the coalition.

From the simple good governance point of view, the answer is as soon as possible – because the sooner it is held, the more time there will be if AV is passed to get the law and then the administration right in good time ahead of the next general election. Late changes to election rules have been the bane of the electoral system far too often in the last decade.

The second, and more contentious, argument is over whether or not it should also be held on the same day as other elections. The up-side is that this will help raise turnout in the referendum giving its result, whatever it turns out to be, more legitimacy. Moreover, as coverage of the AV debate will predominantly be a regional and UK-wide media story, this need not overshadow local (or Scottish or Welsh media) covering local or devolved body elections. However, there would be some cost in attention given to the different elections on the same day and combining elections has a mixed record in the UK.

The politics of the issue are more about which date is most likely to produce which result. With the two coalition partners taking opposite sides in the debate, this is not an easy judgement. A referendum at a time of economic tough times, for example, will see it being held at a time when both Liberal Democrat and Conservative popularity may have taken a hit. But with the two parties on opposite sides of the debate, that may simply cancel out.

For some Conservatives the more popular the coalition, the more tempting it will be to support AV in an attempt to realign British politics around the centre-right rather than the centre-left. AV would also deal with the Conservative problems on their right flank as votes for UKIP can become second preferences for the Conservatives. (UPDATE: For more on this see the recent ResPublica post.)

Labour’s role in this could be crucial. Labour fought the general election on a manifesto committed to an AV referendum (but then they also fought the election on a manifesto committed to fixed-term Parliaments, a pledge that plenty in the Labour Party seemed happy to drop the moment it seemed like someone else would actually implement it). So far it looks as if whoever wins the Labour leadership they will be committed to supporting AV. That perhaps argues in favour of a referendum sooner rather than later as it gives less time and opportunity for Labour to change its mind.

A referendum in Spring 2011 would coincide with the elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly, i.e. two bodies elected several times now by a system other than first past the post. That would see more people voting in the referendum who are therefore used to voting in elections with other voting systems, a likely mark in favour of backing AV.

In turn that helps explain why some Conservatives are keen to avoid Spring 2011 for the referendum, especially as the local elections due in England then are predominantly in urban areas rather than in the shires.

One prediction though: whatever date is picked, everyone in Government will say it’s the date they really wanted all along.