What’s Labour’s biggest electoral failing in this Parliament? It’s failure to win over voters from the Tories. (The number of Conservative to Labour converts in this Parliament is tiny. Towards the end of last year ICM found just 2% of the Conservative 2010 vote had switched to Labour whilst Lord Ashcroft put it only at 4%.)
And what’s the biggest risk that things might get even worse? That left-wing voters who don’t like Labour’s boasts of making further cuts after May, curbing welfare further and reducing immigration will switch to the Greens.
Which is why David Cameron’s reaction to the news that Ukip but not the Greens has passed the de facto threshold for inclusion in TV election debates smart: insist he’ll only take part if the Greens are there too. Miliband’s votes, not his, are the ones that puts at risk.