Political

New seats projection puts Liberal Democrats on 48

The Guardian reports:

The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out…

This model successfully predicted the outcomes of the 2005 and 2010 general elections…

The new forecast for the 2015 election released to the Guardian shows Labour on 291 seats, the Conservatives 281, the Lib Dems 48 and others 30…

The Essex forecasting model works by combining the number of seats won by parties in the previous election with voting intentions data from polls conducted six months prior to the election…

Whitely acknowledged that the model forecast a relatively large number of Lib Dem seats, but that appeared to be because there is a stronger incumbent effect for Lib Dem MPs than any other parties, partly due to many of their MPs long holding marginal seats.

UPDATE: That figure for the Liberal Democrats isn’t quite how things turned out…

 

 

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