Not only did Ukip slip back into fourth, behind the Liberal Democrats, in the 2016 local elections but the party’s vote share fell yet again:
If you’re wondering how come Ukip therefore gained a small number of seats this time round, that’s because most of the seats in 2016 were last up for election in 2012, prior to the party’s big 2013 surge in support.
But in 2017 Ukip won’t have that to fall back on, and with 2013’s set of seats up for election again its declining local election vote share means it is on course to be hammered.
Note: these figures are the Projected National Share (PNS) from the John Curtice / Stephen Fisher team. They are adjusted to take into account the different ranges of seats up for election each year – and so they mean you can compare different years in a like-for-like way.