Following up the top 20 wards for Lib Dem vote share on the London Assembly list ballot, here are the wards with the 20 biggest increases in the Liberal Democrat list ballot between 2012 and 2016.
In doing these calculations, I’ve omitted Hackney, Kensington & Chelsea and Tower Hamlets due to boundary changes. There are a couple of wards in Tower Hamlets which might otherwise make it into the top 20, so I’ll do a bit more digging on those to see if a like-for-like comparison is possible.
|Borough||Ward||2012 list||2016 list||Change|
|Kingston upon Thames||Alexandra||14.3%||20.9%||6.6%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Berrylands||17.6%||23.0%||5.4%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Grove||17.9%||23.1%||5.2%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Old Malden||12.0%||17.0%||5.0%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Surbiton Hill||17.8%||22.2%||4.4%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Chessington South||13.7%||17.9%||4.2%|
|Sutton||Carshalton South and Clockhouse||16.7%||20.8%||4.0%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Chessington North and Hook||16.8%||20.8%||3.9%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Tolworth and Hook Rise||17.0%||20.8%||3.9%|
|Kingston upon Thames||St James||10.1%||13.8%||3.7%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Norbiton||15.5%||18.6%||3.1%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Beverley||15.7%||18.4%||2.7%|
|Kingston upon Thames||St Marks||19.0%||21.2%||2.2%|
|Kingston upon Thames||Tudor||11.1%||13.1%||2.0%|
Two immediate patterns leap out. One is the strong performance in Kingston, where across all the wards the Lib Dem vote averaged an increase of 3.2%. Kingston is the home patch of Emily Davey, who was number two on the Lib Dem list and just missed out on being elected. It is hard to see signs of any other GLA candidate – list or Assembly – having anything like the same impact in helping the party rebuild in an area. There are lessons for the wider party from what went relatively right in Kingston (though sadly even that Kingston performance wasn’t quite enough to get Emily elected).
The second is the relatively strong result in Roding. It had a council by-election on the same day in which Labour took a Conservative seat with the Lib Dems third, but in a ward that also has Lib Dem councillors.
There is also a council by-election due in Surrey Docks in Southwark (Lib Dem defence), which makes its strong appearance in both this and the previous table promising.