How Jeremy Corbyn is doing in the polls compared with Ed Miliband

Jeremy Corbyn - photo from Chatham House CC BY-NC-ND 2 0
Photo courtesy of Chatham House under the CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 license.

Two things are worth remembering about Labour’s performance in opinion polls in the last Parliament. First, Labour under Ed Miliband went on to lose. Second, it turned out the polls were over-estimating Labour’s support.

So on both grounds, a Labour Party that’s doing well should be doing better in the polls than it was doing at this time in the last Parliament.

Here’s how the July 2016 polls compared with the July 2011 polls (taking the last poll in the month where there was more than one comparable poll and going for polls whose fieldwork was all done in July):

ICM: was 36%, now 29% – Labour doing 7% worse
Ipsos-MORI: was 39%, now 35% – Labour doing 4% worse
Opinium: was 38%, now 31% – Labour doing 7% worse
YouGov: was 44%, now 29% – Labour doing 15% worse

That’s doing worse, not better.

For a full set of historic data allowing you to make any comparisons you like see my opinion poll database.

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