In addition to the Thrasher/Rallings predictions for this May’s elections, we have those from Conservative peer Robert Hayward. Years ago, he was the Conservative candidate the Diana Maddock and the Liberal Democrats beat to win a famous Parliamentary by-election victory in Christchurch. More recently he’s carved out a well-respected niche as a fair commentator on each party’s electoral prospects ahead of the May rounds of local elections. He also called both the 2015 general election and 2016 European referendum right.
Here are his predictions which are for England, Scotland and Wales (unlike Thrasher/Rallings, who predicted England only):
Liberal Democrats: +100
If Labour does indeed lose seats, that will make three years in a row of seat losses for the main opposition party. I can’t find any previous occasion on which that has happened, certainly since the early 1980s and possibly since the Second World War.
As for the Liberal Democrats, Robert Hayward has particularly tipped the party’s chances of taking control of Cornwall and Somerset County Councils.