Political

Another election prediction pegs Lib Dems as on course for 100 gains in May

In addition to the Thrasher/Rallings predictions for this May’s elections, we have those from Conservative peer Robert Hayward. Years ago, he was the Conservative candidate the Diana Maddock and the Liberal Democrats beat to win a famous Parliamentary by-election victory in Christchurch. More recently he’s carved out a well-respected niche as a fair commentator on each party’s electoral prospects ahead of the May rounds of local elections. He also called both the 2015 general election and 2016 European referendum right.

Here are his predictions which are for England, Scotland and Wales (unlike Thrasher/Rallings, who predicted England only):

Liberal Democrats: +100
Conservatives: +100
SNP: +30-40
Ukip: -80-90
Labour: -125

If Labour does indeed lose seats, that will make three years in a row of seat losses for the main opposition party. I can’t find any previous occasion on which that has happened, certainly since the early 1980s and possibly since the Second World War.

As for the Liberal Democrats, Robert Hayward has particularly tipped the party’s chances of taking control of Cornwall¬†and Somerset County Councils.

3 responses to “Another election prediction pegs Lib Dems as on course for 100 gains in May”

  1. Hayward may have got it right in the past but I do notice he is still a Tory building up his party in the elections. Let us hope that he has got it wrong and we will have more and the Tories less. Let us take less notice of results like this for if we do not attain the set results you can bet the media and other parties will pick that fact out. We must aim to win wherever we stand and take no notice of polls

  2. There is no evidence that Hayward has ever “stacked” a prediction because of his party loyalty or has had ulterior motives in making predictions. so I would hope the previous post would be ignored and BTW has the poster never heard of targeting? No party ever tries to win everywhere they stand, that just ensures that come election night every seat is LOST

  3. His prediction of us doing very well in Somerset and Cornwall is getting local media coverage. Helps re inforce that is is a two horse race in these counties between us and tories.

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