Political

Kensington constituency opinion poll promising for Lib Dems

Polling station sign

Individual constituency polls at general elections are fairly rarely things these days (pause for happy memories of Channel 4 in the 1987 general election) and Kensington (Conservative majority: 7,361 / 69% Remain vote / Conservative MP who backed Leave) isn’t an obvious constituency to poll.

But that’s what has happened:

Those topline figures, if accurate (and constituency polls are even harder to get right than national polls), are quite promising for the Liberal Democrats as this is not a traditional area of strength for the party. Cross-tabs from national polls have suggested that the party is doing disproportionately well in London, but even so to be up 11 points in an area like this in London is at the high end of what have been expected.

The poll also tested a fictional ‘Stop Brexit’ candidate – note both how deeply they eat into Lib Dem support (i.e. much of it is primarily motivated by stop Brexit motivation) and also how the combined Lib Dem and Stop Brexit vote would be enough to win (showing the potential for the Lib Dems if the party can be seen as the stop Brexit vehicle):

Full data tables here.

UPDATE: A similar Battersea poll is now also out.

Full data tables here.

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