More evidence that support is growing for a referendum on terms of Brexit
A new poll gives further evidence that support is growing amongst the public for a referendum to be held on the terms of the Brexit deal once it is know. A first referendum on the facts, as it were.
The survey from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (GQRR) shows 34% backing a referendum in which people are given the choice between accepting the deal or staying in the EU. This is up from 28% in a similar survey conducted back in March.
That includes majority support, just, amongst Labour voters. 51% of them want a referendum to be held giving the choice between accepting the deal or staying in the EU.
Although that 34% is some way short of a majority, it shows how much scope there is for Liberal Democrat support to grow based on the party’s backing for that very policy. Yes, there are plenty of people who oppose it but there are more than enough who support it for the party to prosper. As long, that is, as the party isn’t scared off by the idea of a policy that is much more popular than the party but which isn’t popular with everyone.The other is that 34% isn’t set in stone. It’s risen, and could rise further – or fall. There is reason to be optimistic about its scope for rising further as one thing that is likely to hold Remainers back from wanting a referendum is a belief that either departure is inevitable and it’s best to get on with it, or that a referendum is too risky and might be lost. Those different sorts of resigned pessimism could shift if they are given a reason to hope that things could be different – by seeing the Lib Dems start to do better once again.
Success could breed further success for the Lib Dems.
Is a referendum the best way to get votes or campaigning for a general election for an exit from Brexit? We must watch CLOSELY how we progress in voter share in local elections and polls.With policies included a G.E. could give us a risein voter share
The problem with a Third UK Referendum on EU (2016 was the second) is that there are now 3 options : 1.Remain, 2. Leave on negotiated deal by TM PM 3. Leave and reject deal. By their nature, a 3 answer referendum is most unlikely to produce a majority result, but under the first past the post system a 34% could decide the country’s fate, as does a general election. The big diference with a General election is that GE elects people (apart from impersonation) you get the person who wins, even with 30% or less of vote, if there are enough candidates.
With questions on POLICY, it all depends what detail you give. Which are facts, which are opinion and which are false news. You never know what you are actually voting for even with something as simple as bringing back the death penalty for certain crimes.
Is it possible to educate an electorate to understand the difference? between electing a person for a fixed term – in a Democracy ( and forever in a Dictatorship) and — a Policy Choice in a Referendum? — that can (and maybe should) be changed whenever a leadership choose it is advantageous to do so ? i.e we could vote on EU membership every year, every five or every ten or twenty five years. There are good resons for and against each re-run period. No one will ever know if the result is good for the country or not if implemented, as we cannot not actually compare the result with the alternative that is NOT implemented, as the background automatically is very different.
The way to run a 3 option referendum is to have an alternative vote.
This voting method is well established in the UK in, for example, the London mayoral elections.
I have seen others saying that a three way referendum would not work as people only have one vote. Sadly this is either a misconception or some way to undermine the option using a straw man argument.
If Ref#2 (or #3) starts getting support then it is likely that Labour will come on board. Which then means the Lib Dems distinctively POV on that starts to diminish.
And lord only knows what happens when some Brexiteers start calling for a Ref#2 because they don’t like the idea of a transition period or the exit terms. It’s not inconceivable that a referendum gets through Parliament with the support of both pro and anti-EU factions. (I now take the view that ruling out scenarios as they sound crazy is no longer sensible!)
Labour support for a Ref$2(orRef$3) is already being leaked at their Conference. It is only being slowed down by fears of a complete split in their Party. Is it just too temting to opose Tories and squeeze Lib Dems at the same time? Back to reality what do the Lib Dems do? Remain consistent and concentrate on Local issues. The National debate will go our way, as Vince Cable says. Now that the decision to Leave is final or in the hands of the electorate (Ref$3) we can stop discusing Brexit and work with sensible Brexiteers to get elected to replace Tories, as the UKIP vote colapses in the Tory South. No doubt in Labour areas it will work the other way as usual. Will the protest vote come back to us from Labour?
I am sure that, when asked if they have changed their minds, or just want another referendum- most will not openly admit that they may have been wrong or had bought into the lies. So I think it will be a much greater number. The truth- at this time- would only really come out in the privacy of a polling booth; that is, until the stuff really does hit the fan.
The problem with this view is that, despite all the evidence of this years elections and opinion polls, it persists with the belief that Remainers will vote in ‘normal’ elections primarily on that single issue. Many Leavers did, first for UKIP and then the Conservatives but Remainers clearly did not.
Mark does at least recognise at the end of his piece that a prerequisite for some Remainers switching to (or back to) us might be that we first need to start appearing a more credible electoral choice. However the Catch 22 as far as I can see is that we will not become more electorally credible until we cease to be an obsessive single issue pressure group over the issue of Brexit. The latter stance not only failed entirely to win over large numbers of Remainers in this years elections it actually drove away some of our often very long standing supporters. Our electoral support in June was even worse than that following the disastrous Coalition years. In the County elections our widely expected surge was reversed as soon as Theresa May turned it into a Brexit election.
People tend to make up their minds or change them only when there is a need such as a vote. So polling can lag behind actual trends that are only revealed with a real vote. I suspect very few people really know how they feel about a subject until it is tested.