No, Andrew Adonis leading a new centre party isn’t the answer
Yes, talk of forming new parties (to add to the many new parties already created in the last few months) is back in the air again.
So let’s remember that one of the most basic rules, if not the most basic rule, of using evidence is to look at the full range of evidence and not just pick the most eye-catching outlier.
Hence my comments on Twitter earlier about the foolishness of looking at Emanuel Macron’s success in France and simply saying ‘hey British centrists, do that here too!’:
Striking that I've yet to find anyone who says 'hey, X in the UK should copy En Marche!' who factors in the number of failed new centrist political parties in France. Is picking one outlier really a good basis for decision making?
— Mark Pack (@markpack) February 15, 2018
E.g. @chrisdeerin's otherwise interesting https://t.co/5dy7Y5mTox is written as if the scorecard in France is: one attempt, one success, therefore obviously good idea to copy.
— Mark Pack (@markpack) February 15, 2018
All the more so if you apply a bit of detailed analysis not only to the failure rate of centrist political movements in France but also to boring details like the use of first past the post in constituencies in Britain rather the French election methods.
Or indeed how when not being the hero of liberals, Andrew Adonis is going round being the enemy of liberals:
I like Chris but I'm deeply sceptical about new centrist party dreams and not obvious why someone who spends much of his time on ill informed scattergun attacks on liberal professions and institutions (judges,unis,Bbc) wld be a good person to lead one https://t.co/ZBhM1nQGBk
— Rob Ford (@robfordmancs) February 15, 2018
As Vince Cable, leader of the existing liberal centrist(-ish) party said:
New parties, including centrist parties, almost always fail.
As a veteran of the SDP, Vince Cable of course knows all about new parties.
Our political system totally clobbers new parties. I joined the SDP when it was formed, and after initial success needed to merge with the Liberal Party to form the Lib Dems. I have remained a Lib Dem ever since. Despite its failings during the coalition with the Conservatives it remains the only viable option to oppose Brexit!
So you are suggesting that because of a high failure rate – just like many business start-ups – people shouldn’t try?
Putting aside the differences in the systems for a moment, and using En Marche as an example, do you think the success came from the agreeable system or the fact that it was led well, run well, executed a (political) business plan properly or something else?
Why couldn’t a UK party who was well resourced, planned effectively, was well led, got the timing right then win seats?
At the very least the current LDs appear to lack the ability to all pull in the same direction. There are historic structural issues in the party that make it a place for too many chiefs, not enough Indians so opportunity passes by – the last GE is the latest – because the organisation is not well led enough and disciplined enough to pivot quickly and capitalise on such a gift.
Twas ever thus.