Political

More cheer and two reasons for caution for pro-Europeans in latest polling

The trends in polling on the European Union continue:

A recent BMG poll on behalf ofย The Independentย shows that 48% of the public now support a public vote on the terms of the Governmentโ€™s Brexit deal. The results represent a small increase in support from last month, up four points.

The exact wording of questions matters greatly on the topic of another / second / third / first referendum on the deal as it produced substantive differences in the results. The key thing to track, therefore, is how the answers are changing between different times that the exact same question wording is used.

This BMG poll adds to the picture from other polling with other question wording: a clear overall trend in favour of giving the public a(nother) vote.

That trend may cheer pro-Europeans, though two caveats are worth emphasising. One is that even much larger trends than the one we’ve seen so far can go into reverse. The other is that political pressure to secure such a vote will be much increased if there is a significant shift in opinion amongst those who voted Leave. So far, the evidence is that is only happening on a small scale.

That is always worth remembering when Remainers lapse into language that can look insulting or dismissive about people who voted Leave. They, along with non-voters,ย need to be won over to win the battle of Europe. Insults are rarely a good prelude to conversion as this tweet highlights:

Get polling news and analysis by email

Sign up here if you would like to receive the Polling UnPackedย occasional email newsletter, highlighting the best in analysis and news about British political opinion polling from a carefully curated range of high-quality sites (no more than one email a day and usually much less frequent):

  • If you submit this form, your data will be used in line with the privacy policy here to update you on the topic(s) selected. This may including using this data to contact you via a variety of digital channels.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Advertisements

There are 3 comments

Share your views

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

All comments and data you submit with them will be handled in line with the privacy and moderation policies.