What seats do you think the Liberal Democrats will gain/lose in the next general election?

That was the question recently asked on Quora, to which my answer was:

What seats do you think the Liberal Democrats will gain and lose in the 2020 election?

The most promising territory currently looks to be areas which voted Remain (as that’s the big distinctive issue for the Lib Dems) and which are held by the Conservatives (as it’s almost always much easier for a party out of power to take seats from a party in power rather than from another party out of power).

That would match up with where the Lib Dems are currently doing well in local council elections which is not a sure predictor but a useful indicator.

What’s yours (whether you go for the next general election being in 2020 or another year)?

5 responses to “What seats do you think the Liberal Democrats will gain/lose in the next general election?”

  1. The Lib Dems need to guard against complacency in Orkney, Norfolk and Westmorland but really shouldn’t be losing any seats.
    I can’t see there being many gains either with the party being so far behind in most constituencies.
    That said you would imagine that Richmond Park, Fife NE, St Ives and Hallam (for local reasons) should all go yellow if there is any sizeable increase in the centre vote.
    Middle class remain type seats such as Cheltenham, Cheadle, St Albans, Lewes, Hazel Grove, Wells and Winchester should also be targeted as they look vulnerable. I don’t know enough about Ceredigion to make a judgement.
    Even if all the above were won it would leave only 23 Lib Dem MPs

    • That would still be a lot better than at present. I agree that the worst aspect of 2017 was falling well behind in seats like Montgomery, Brecon & Radnor and Berwick-on-Tweed, Colchester and Yeovil. I’d still fancy Sutton and Lewes and maybe another Highland seat, since electorates there are volatile and more swayed by local and personal issues than most. Thinking long-term, I believe we should give some priority to places where we’re too far behind to win, but no-one else can beat the Tory and in the recent past we held the seat. Back to a decent second place in such places would set us up well to win the next time.

  2. It’s somewhat disheartening that despite the Lib Dems continuous electoral successes in council (or mayoral) elections in areas such as Cheltenham, Sutton, Eastleigh, Watford, Three Rivers, etc. they have not been able to translate this strength into winning the respective parliamentary seats.

    • Tom Brake is an MP in Sutton, by the way, although that doesn’t invalidate the overall point you make. You could view that point as optimistic – the fact the party has areas of strength in seats we haven’t (yet) regained shows the possibility of more gains in the future.

  3. A lot will depend on the way the media treat us and, at the current level of coverage we and all the ‘other’ parties are largely being ignored. Our activists complain that we are not getting in the press, and even the ‘I’ can run editions where we are not mentioned.. and I know it isn’t a lack of media releases or activity by our MPs, it is entirely at the behest of the non-dom owners and their editors. And the BBC is just following the herd as usual.
    Whilst public information is under the control of our opponents we have to do something pretty dramatic to get any attention..
    Thankfully The New European is giving us fair coverage..

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