What the long-term polling averages say about the popularity of the parties: PollBase Q4 2018 update
The latest quarterly update to my PollBase, my database of British voting intention opinion polls since 1943 is now up.
Here’s the overall picture it paints, with the gradual downward drift for Labour and the upward drift for the Liberal Democrats and Greens over the long term:
Aside from another three months of data, this update includes:
- Fieldwork dates added for several February 1974 polls
- Fieldwork dates corrected for several September 1974 polls, and an additional NOP poll added
- Extra YouGov leader ratings from 2017 and 2018
Enjoy!
Does this mean that Lib Dems and the Greens have gained marginally (2% each) from Labour and UKIP from the Conservatives (1%)? In which case the primary motive for the change in voting intentions is Brexit. Or is it too simplistic?
I suspect the slight gain for us and the Greens may all be down to Brexit because I spent yesterday morning leafleting outside one of the local tube stations (Turnpike Lane, Haringey) and the number of Labour members and strong supporters who said they would either vote Lib Dem or Green or abstain in the General elction should there be one, was high among younger middle class voters. Not so among the minorities, older and working class voters. To them voting is a reinforcement of their identity and allegiances resulting from it.