I like teasing people by asking (a) which political party has increased its share of the vote at the last five general elections in a row? and then following up with (b) why doesn’t such a long-term, sustained growth in support trigger a wave of punditry about how the country’s politics are moving in that party’s direction?
The answer to (a), remarkably, is the Conservative Party. And at least until recently, the absence of that wave of punditry in (b) has been a very odd omission. It’s rather like the long-term sustained increase in turnout in the UK, up for four general elections in a row. Both trends get discarded for, I fear, no better reason that they don’t fit with currently popular cliches and conventional thinking.
That said, the absence of such punditry is now, at least, becoming more understandable given the disintegration before our eyes of the Conservative Party:
- ConservativeHome: Three out of five Party members will vote for the Brexit Party in European elections.
- Mail on Sunday: 40% of Tory councillors back Nigel Farage’s new party
- The Independent: Grassroots Tories boycott campaign for European elections