European Parliament election results 2019 broken down by Westminster constituency
Chris Hanretty has worked his statistical expertise once again, and come up with high-quality calculations (estimates) as to what the European Parliament election result was in each Westminster constituency.
As he cautions, “These figures remain estimates, and so they are subject to error.” Plus, of course, they are figures for the votes in a European Parliament election held in May 2019 using the d’Hondt system of proportional representation. That is not the same as saying what will happen in another sort of election held using a different voting system on another date.
Here is the spreadsheet with all the estimates:
European Parliament election 2019 results by Westminster constituency
Note: the 2016 European referendum result is also available broken down by ward and constituency.
Chris Hanretty’s methodology
Here is his methodology note explaining how the calculations were done.
In the words of Peter Snow, “Just a bit of fun!”
Could it be a workable electoral pact between Greens and LibDems if at the next general election the party with the smaller local vote share stood down in favour of the party with the larger local vote share? On these figures, that would give Greens 50 seats to go for with LibDem support, including for example 3 out the 4 Bristol seats, in return for supporting LibDems elsewhere.