Cambridge constituency opinion poll shows Liberal Democrats ahead

Following the release by the Liberal Democrats of a constituency poll for Luciana Berger’s hoped-for new constituency of Finchley and Golders Green, comes this one for Cambridge. It’s promising news for Rod Cantrill:

Looks like I’ve chosen a good place to go canvassing tomorrow.

The full data tables are available, and all the caveats I mentioned last time very much also apply to this poll.

One detail worth noting in particular: the poll puts the Liberal Democrats on 51% amongst Remainers and only 8% amongst Leavers. Constituency result projections that don’t take into account the Leave/Remain balance of a seat are likely to be very fragile.

6 responses to “Cambridge constituency opinion poll shows Liberal Democrats ahead”

  1. So who will stand in South Cambs with Heidi stepping down? Will she stand elsewhere? It would be a shame to lose her as an MP.

  2. Ian Sollom was so gracious in standing down for Heidi a few weeks ago. I really liked the honesty of his statement (it was along the lines of “I really hate doing this, but I do believe its the right thing, so…” which was such a refreshing change from the standard “Oh I’m so thrilled to be standing aside for the wonderful XX” nonsense). So I’m glad he is back, and I really hope he wins.
    It is sad about Heidi though. She was a breath of fresh air. But I respect her decision, and her reasons. I hope she remains a party member though.

  3. I am very concerned that the party are once again relying on very small sample polling in constituencies to justify a big headline locally and a huge gamble nationally. Here we have a sample of just 417, with the 18 to 34 age range massively under sampled – just 62, weighted up to 196.

    Over the next few weeks the big parties will saturate the key demographics to an extent we will not be able to compete with and the big headlines will steadily disappear. A lead of 9% in this poll is nothing like enough to have any real confidence of victory.

    Once again the dreamers will have led us into a Brexit nightmare.

  4. The poll also indicates a significant Green vote, which will be squeezable, if it isn’t one of the seats where the Greens will stand down in our favour.

    Cambridge is eminently winnable.

    In this constituency, the dreams have a firm basis. Seats like Esher and Walton are another matter

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