Two new constituency polls show Lib Dems in with strong chances in South Cambridgeshire and Wokingham
First, and most importantly, all the caveats about constituency polls apply, although it is worth noting that so far constituency polls and MRP modelling are giving broadly similar results. That two different approaches give similar results suggests more confidence in the picture and certainly undermines any naive faith in the last general election as being the definitive best guide to tactical voting. The evidence is stacking up rather differently.
With that, here are the poll results…
South Cambridgeshire
The full data tables are available and it is worth noting that the polling took place after Heidi Allen’s decision to retire and the reinstatement of Ian Sollom as the Lib Dem candidate.
Wokingham
This is a constituency of double-interest due to being held by arch-Brexiter John Redwood and due to the Liberal Democrat candidate being recent recruit to the Parliamentary Party Phillip Lee:
We must do all we can to rise in the polls for these indicate to the voter who to vote for.Heavy use of the internet and as much tv coverage as possible .The more complains the
better to indicate to the voter about the ‘stitch up’ that has been arranged. Show that democracy is being hijacked by 2 extremes promising the Earth.
As long as these polls can dismiss the myth that “Lib Dems can’t win in your area” then these are really important. The LDs have been wrongly accused in some cases of misleading the public by Labour/Tory MPs and their members throwing toys out of the pram because of data that challenges the conventional wisdom.
There have been a few incidences where the LDs have been cheeky on the leaflets, especially the Jo Swinson/Guardian quote. I hope that doesn’t disqualify the fact that most of these polls are telling the truth and are not misleading at all.
The publicity about it may be a good thing though as it gives LDs media airtime to be able to present their policies and not be crowded out by Labour and Conservatives.