How good is MRP at understanding what is going on in specific constituencies?

Ben Lauderdale is one of the smarts behind the YouGov MRP model this time and last time.

Here’s what he said on Twitter:

Me: My super-rough rule of thumb is to look at the average sample size in each seat (about 130 in this case); see how many multiples you need to get up to 1,000 (8 in this case); and then concluded that if a factor is present in that many seats then MRP should be able to cope.

Ben: That is generally the calculation I do as well!

The understanding which MRP-based data can give about individual constituencies can be supplemented, of course, by constituency polling.


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