Third Finchley and Golders Green constituency poll shows Luciana Berger not far off winning

Alastair Campbell tweets about canvassing for Luciana Berger

I hope Brenda from Bristol never moved to Finchley and Golders Green as it is looking like being the most heavily polled constituency in the country (especially when you remember that additional constituency polls are done and never made public).

We’re now up to three constituency polls there, with a new phone poll published by The Jewish Chronicle.

All three show the same picture. The Liberal Democrats with Luciana Berger have moved up massively in support since 2017 and are the best chance of defeating the Conservative incumbent.

The latest poll results are:

Conservative: 43%
Lib Dem (Luciana Berger): 36%
Labour: 21%

Full data tables here, from which I have excluded refuseds and similar and is standard in presenting such figures.

There is one caveat to add to the usual ones for constituency polls. The firm that did the fieldwork, Watermelon Research, is not one of the regular outfits which do political polling. That said, the results fit with the other polls. They also fit with the various MRP analyses when you bear in mind that the particular combination of Luciana Berger and a large Jewish community is the sort of factor that may be too specific even for a very good MRP analysis to pick-up.

Certainly, when I’ve been over that way, it’s been striking just how large the Lib Dem grassroots operation is, with Luciana pulling in support from across the political spectrum.

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