Political

Did tactical voting sites benefit the Liberal Democrats?

Interesting initial analysis by Chris Hanretty based on looking at the difference that being backed by a tactical voting site made to the Lib Dem vote share in a constituency, after allowing for differences between seats such as previous levels of party support and different demographics:

We find that the estimate of the effect on the Lib Dem vote share of being endorsed by Best for Britain is around 5 percentage points (95% CI*: 4 to 6 percentage points).

The equivalent figure for Remain United is smaller (2.6 percentage points), but significantly different from zero (95% CI: 1.1 to 4.1 percentage points).

You can read his full analysis here.

 

* CI = confidence interval, i.e. the range of values which we can be 95% sure contains the real figure.

 

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