Did tactical voting sites benefit the Liberal Democrats?
Interesting initial analysis by Chris Hanretty based on looking at the difference that being backed by a tactical voting site made to the Lib Dem vote share in a constituency, after allowing for differences between seats such as previous levels of party support and different demographics:
We find that the estimate of the effect on the Lib Dem vote share of being endorsed by Best for Britain is around 5 percentage points (95% CI*: 4 to 6 percentage points).
The equivalent figure for Remain United is smaller (2.6 percentage points), but significantly different from zero (95% CI: 1.1 to 4.1 percentage points).
You can read his full analysis here.
* CI = confidence interval, i.e. the range of values which we can be 95% sure contains the real figure.
Good, but what about where the Tory majority was enormous, but the tactical voting sites recommended voting Labour? People voted Labour tactically in Harwich and North Essex, where there was no point in a tactical vote! Didn’t stop their vote declining and ours going up, but the effect should have been bigger.