Inquiry into the Performance of the Opinion Polls at the 2019 Australian Federal Election

The post-mortem into the performance of the polls at the 2019 Australian federal election was recently published. It has interesting similarities with the 2015 UK post-mortem with its emphasis on faulty samples.

Note though that although the election result was a shock compared with the polls, in terms of actual vote shares the 2019 Australian polls performed decently. It was the consistency of a Labor lead being followed by a Liberal win that shocked people.

Pennay, D, Goot, M. Neiger, D. Trewin, D. Lavrakas, P. J., Stirton, J., Hughes, P
Sheppard, J. McAllister, I. (2020) Report of the Inquiry into the Performance of the Opinion Polls at the 2019 Australian Federal Election, Association of Market and Social Research Organisations and the Statistical Society of Australia.

For more on how the polls went wrong in this and in other elections, see my book, Polling UnPacked.