Conservatives ahead in first Hartlepool by-election poll
Image by TreborReknub01 from Pixabay.
The first proper constituency poll for the Hartlepool by-election has the Conservatives in the lead in this Labour seat:
NEW Survation phone poll – Hartlepool by-election voting Intention:
CON 49%
LAB 42%
NIP 2%
LD 1%
GRN 1 %
Reform 1% https://t.co/vAPVdwlSNT502 sample, by phone for @CWUnews. 29 March-3 April. pic.twitter.com/HpmkeiVIEz
— Survation. (@Survation) April 5, 2021
Another pollster comments:
Good poll for the Tories in Hartlepool but worth noting a sample of 502 has a decent margin of error and there’s a month left. Though, as I’ve said, honeymoon over for Starmer and losing Hartlepool would obvs be a big blow for Labour.
— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) April 5, 2021
Though note:
Not keen to "dunk" on the work of fellow pollsters, but there are many red flags in the Survation Hartlepool tables.
Look at the unweighted and weighted 2019 vote figures. They imply:
Con (49% uw, 46% w)
Lab (43%, 47%)
Brx (4%, 3%).Actual result:
Con: 29%
Lab: 38%
Brx: 26% pic.twitter.com/s9ZQxlsyFt— Patrick English (@PME_Politics) April 6, 2021
The apparent shortage of former Brexit Party voters from the Survation sample may, however, be due to Brexit voters forgetting or misreporting that they backed that party in 2019. This problem of faulty recall is far more common than many people realise, and is the crux of the defence Survation has made of its figures.
Andy Hagon is the Liberal Democrat candidate.
Full details on the Survation website.
1% is pretty good for the Greens when they do not (so far) have a candidate.
For us, at the least we need to retain our deposit. Anything less than the 4.1% at the last election would be a damning reflection on the leadership. We have a government that is piling on sleaze, accountability is absent, there is a gaping democratic deficit and everyday brings more examples of lives and businesses that are being damaged by the inanities and idiocy of Brexit.
Thought the Hartlepool region voted largely for Brexit it is negatively affected. In a by-election where voting for a government is not an issue, Liberal Democrats ought to be able to muster a sixth of the 30% who voted against Brexit.