Political

Sarah Green wins Chesham and Amersham by-election!

Both exactly what the feedback I got from voters today pointed towards and yet also unbelievable. A massive 25% swing from the Conservatives to Sarah Green:

The Liberal Democrat majority over the defeated Conservative candidate is now bigger than the Lib Dem vote in total was in 2017.

The 1.6% for Labour is, I think, their lowest ever Parliamentary constituency result – and a welcome testimony to the power of tactical voting.

So many congratulations due to so many people, especially to Sarah, her agent James and the whole team – and to the thousands of volunteers who turned up to make it happen.

A good by-election result for the opinion pollsters

You might wonder about how a Parliamentary by-election without any public opinion polls can be a good one for pollsters. But bear with me... more

The last time there was a Liberal Democrat / SDP / Liberal MP elected anywhere in Buckinghamshire was in 1923. In Chesham and Amersham itself, the Conservatives have won all 13 previous contests and by over 10,000 votes each time. Under Theresa May, the Conservatives won this seat with a 22,140 majority. Boris Johnson has managed to thrown that away in less than four years.

And Sarah Green’s majority? It’s larger than the total Lib Dem vote was in 2017.

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