Breaching the Blue Wall: important new electoral analysis

Lots of useful stuff to digest in this new report from the team that first identified the ‘yellow halo’, the forerunner to what we now all call the Blue Wall.


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6 responses to “Breaching the Blue Wall: important new electoral analysis”

  1. The view that Labour is highly unlikely to have any wish to form a pact with other centre or left parties fits well with the recent history of the Labour Party. This reinforces my own view that what is really needed is a realignment of the centre, perhaps built around a new Party, that would attract the LibDems and Greens, and elements of the Labour, Tory and National Parties (eg SNP. Plaid Cymru) that increasingly do not fit with their existing parties. But all that may take some considerable time to achieve. So pending that emergence, perhaps the main programme now should be to promote tactical voting in General Elections.

  2. How do we know whether there is any more tactical voting slack not already taken up in 2019? There is always likely to be an 8% Labour minimum in any constituency – their only lost one deposit in 2019 (Winchester). But it seems to me it shd be possible to attract most of the balance to LD in the South in those constituencies where tactical slack still can be identified. At General Elections the Southern Con vote may not be averse to voting LD but only if there was no possibility of an overall Labour Government

  3. In addition in Chesham and Amersham by-election you first have to factor in the ‘gain’ of 6500 General Election Labour votes lost by Labour presumably to LD: then you can see the true advance of the LD. Would that happen at the next GE, even to the extent of half, say 3250 votes?

  4. I rather hoped my comments would start a discussion: but not, so I try again. I take the 24 seats where Labour was second in 2019 to a Con with a minority of votes (see chart above). Assuming these seats would be contested without any other progressive candidate; that the Labour person would be selected as anti-Con candidate; that the Con vote would be bolstered by UKIP/Brexit vote; that rather than vote in a Lab government one in six LD would vote Con; I came to the conclusion that only 6 seats would be ‘certain’ Lab gains gains (Kensington, Chipping Barnet; Watford; Wycombe; High Peak; and Bury S); to the same level of ‘certainty’ ( 1% + majority) Con would hold on just in 7 seats (Truro; Southport; Rushcliffe; Filton; Bolton NE; Dewsbury and Stroud); and in the remaining 11 seats we would be in double figure majority territory. My conclusion is that LD would do better in blue wall terrain and elsewhere to hammer the Labour vote, to capture all 17 of their second place on the chart and some outliers, to get back to 40+ seats in all

  5. Hammering Labour is negative.
    To win seats we need to highlight our own, policies, especially the ones that DIFFERENTIATE us from the others.
    The national campaign is critical. If the National Party comes over less favourably than the Local Lib Dem members and councillors we lose the advantage they should give us.
    Trying to simultaneous appeal to soft Labour and soft Conservatives nationally, without disagreeing with either on anything significant issues, leads to bland policy statements that do not win new votes from either side.
    To give people reasons to vote for us, we need to have alternative policies on issues that concern them.
    We do not need posturing or commitment to, or not to, form alliances with particular groups, especially if it coud be taken to be self serving.

  6. The conclusion from my suggestions wd be that tactical voting as suggested wd be of very little interest to a large number of Labour voters. Labour seats might increase by 20 and Lib Dems to 55. On 2019 figures that gives Labour plus LD 275 and leaves the SNP to make up the anti-Tory coalition: imagine the reaction of the English parties, and the mileage that the Tories wd extract from that scenario

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