Political

Lib Dems turn 42 majority over Conservatives into 1,711 majority in Blue Wall

Four council by-elections this week, though only two with Liberal Democrat candidates which is, regrettably, down one on last time these seats were contested.

Those two Lib Dem candidates however…

Last time, the Lib Dem majority in this was was just 42. Now it is 1,711.

Another chunky increase in the Lib Dem majority – from 596 last time to 788.

The Paul is Paul Clark, the former Lib Dem councillor for both seats who passed away from Covid before Christmas. The team did indeed do Paul’s record of local service proud. Many congratulations to new councillors Keith Hoskins (Hitchin South) and Raj Bhakar (Hitchin Highbury).

What a great set of holds to follow up last week’s gain from the Conservatives.

In the other contests:

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections. See my post The danger in celebrating parish and town council wins for your own party for the reasons to avoid straying too often into covering town, parish or community council by-elections.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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4 responses to “Lib Dems turn 42 majority over Conservatives into 1,711 majority in Blue Wall”

  1. Think I see what you’ve done. Yesterdays total vote (2,401) minus the majority (42) from last time?

  2. Of course Labour did not stand , they had over 800 last time, all needs to be taken into account, but still a good result, the Cons percentage well down.

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