Political

Two successful Lib Dem defences in this week’s by-elections

Four principal authority council by-elections this week, with three Liberal Democrat candidates – one up on the last time these seats were up.

First up, a successful Lib Dem defence:

Congratulations to Geoff Cooper and the team.

Next:

Thank you to Alisdair Gibbs-Barton for standing in a ward that the party had last contested all the way back in 2013.

Next, a contest without a Lib Dem, continuing a run of no shows for the party back to the ward’s creation in 2003:

And finally… another solid Lib Dem hold:

Congratulations to Clive Trott and the team.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections. See my post The danger in celebrating parish and town council wins for your own party for the reasons to avoid straying too often into covering town, parish or community council by-elections.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week:

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4 responses to “Two successful Lib Dem defences in this week’s by-elections”

  1. Mark – do you have any advice for the Test Valley team on the representation of women in their photographs?

  2. ‘Blue Wall’ constituencies in the SE overlay the chalk stream catchments – I can send you the maps. Great opportunity to campaign on stopping sewage discharges and excessive water abstraction across the whole area.

    • Thanks for the write-up Mark. Unfortunately, our new councillor is Clive Trott, not Dave. There was an ironic side to this error though, as the Tory ran on the slogan ‘Dave for Denne’!

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