Political

Two Conservative defeats in council by-elections

Two principal authority council by-elections this week, both losses for the Conservatives, continuing their run of bad results, though only one Lib Dem candidate:

Thank you to Elizabeth Lee for standing in this ward, which is in the Labour-held Brighton Kempton constituency (rather than in the Lib Dem/Conservative battleground of Lewes).

Elsewhere:

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections. See my post The danger in celebrating parish and town council wins for your own party for the reasons to avoid straying too often into covering town, parish or community council by-elections. But this week, these other by-elections did come to notice:

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week:

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