Will the polls get the general election wrong? The Week in Polls

The latest edition of my weekly political polling round-up, The Week in Polls, is out.

As it says:

One of my tasks in a previous general election was to organise mass nationwide purchase of Charles Kennedy gnomes. The idea was to purchase enough gnomes to move the ‘gnome poll’ being carried out by a leading supermarket across marginal seats.

We bought many gnomes, we gained seats and I still have two CK gnomes, one in the garden and one visible over my shoulder on Zoom calls.

We can agree though, I hope, that gnome purchases are not a great electoral predictor.

What, however, about opinion polls? Will the polls be right this time around? 

Find out more by reading this edition of The Week in Polls here, and you can sign up below to receive future editions direct to your email inbox:

One response to “Will the polls get the general election wrong? The Week in Polls”

  1. What is really weird about the SNP 0% in that People Polling poll is that when you look at the response to Q2 rather than Q2b (the latter excludes those who have not chosen a Party and also those whose LTV score (Q1) is below 6/10) they are on 22% in Scotland and 0% elsewhere. Strangely, Plaid Cymru in Q2b are on 1% in London, 3% in the North and 2% in the rest of the South but 0% in the Midlands and Wales.

    When a pollster produces an odd-looking result, it is always worth going back to the original pollsters’ data rather relying on what some, statistically illiterate, journalist has written. In this case it looks like People Polling didn’t do any error-checking on their data before publishing it (which wouldn’t encourage me to use them) but I doubt that GB News care about accuracy.

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