Is Rishi Sunak 5, 32 or 38 points behind Liz Truss? The Week in Polls

The latest edition of my weekly political polling round-up, The Week in Polls, is now out.

As it says:

There was a flurry of excitement a few days ago when a new poll put Liz Truss only five points ahead of Rishi Sunak with Conservative Party members. Is the race really much closer than YouGov polling, conventional wisdom – and nearly all unconventional wisdom – has it?

Let’s dig into the evidence and find out.

You can read The Week in Polls in full here, and you can sign up to receive future editions here:

The Week in Polls

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3 responses to “Is Rishi Sunak 5, 32 or 38 points behind Liz Truss? The Week in Polls”

  1. Mark, There is a lot of enthusiasm for MRP at the moment and as you say it did very well in 2017, although less so in 2019. Criticism of the technique is now emerging in the technical literature suggesting that it can be wrong depending on the quality of the data and how accurate the assumptions needed to make it work are in practice. See Matthew Buttice and Benjamin Highton. 2013 ‘How Does Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Perform with Conventional National Surveys? Political Analysis 21 (04): 449-467. So it is not a panacea.

  2. When I see and hear their various statements and within days their retractions my heart sinks Our country needs and deserves better than these two chancers A general elections very soon is the only answer

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