Lib Dems defeat Conservatives in Somerset, again
Five Liberal Democrat candidates for the eight principal authority council by-elections this week, which is one up on the last time these seats were up.
Thank you to Jay Beyer for being the Lib Dem candidate and putting the party back on ballot papers in this ward.
Congratulations to new Lib Dem councillor Barbara Appleby, winning what may be the last ever by-election for this council as the new Somerset unitary council, elected this year, takes over next year.
Make your own jokes about windows.
It’s now been 17 years since the last Lib Dem candidate in this ward.
Thank you to Charlie Houghton for standing – and for so nearly over-taking the Greens.
Congratulations to Thom Holmes on a really impressive move from fourth to second place – and setting up further Lib Dem progress in the area.
Haren Thillainathan was the Lib Dem candidate – thank you.
For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.
These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections. See my post The danger in celebrating parish and town council wins for your own party for the reasons to avoid straying too often into covering town, parish or community council by-elections.
Understanding the opinion polls
For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.
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If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week:
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Do we detect that the Johnson-free Tory vote in the Midlands and North is now holding up? We have to remind ourselves that in GE19 LD was second in 91 seats with an average deficit (Tory majority) of 14,873 – 15 under 5,000, 11 under 10,000; 17 under 15,000; and 58 over 15,000. If Labour make so little progress, then LD will have to take most of that 15 + 11 + 17 – and will again have to fight the Tory canard that a LD vote means a LAB/SNP coalition, and sleeper Tories will come out of the wood work again