Political

Lib Dems gain majority on North Devon Council after by-election gain

In addition to three contests in the City of London, there were eight local council seats (two both in the same ward) on principal authorities up for election this week, with six Liberal Democrat candidates across them. That’s two up on the last time the seats were up. (Here’s why such news is so important.)

First up, a Lib Dem gain that gives us a majority on North Devon Council:

That was an 11% swing for new Liberal Democrat councillor, Victoria Nel.

That’s an 11% swing from the Conservatives, whose councillor then later became independent before later standing down.

Elsewhere another Liberal Democrat gain:

Congratulations to new Lib Dem councillor Alison Jay, and commiserations to Chantelle-Louise Whyborn on missing out this time.

In the other contests:

Thank you to Ben Rist for putting the Lib Dems on the ballot in this ward for the first time since 2014.

Thank you to Iain McDonald for putting the Lib Dems on the ballot paper here after three previous no-shows.

Thank you to Stewart Stone for being the Liberal Democrat candidate.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available. But this week, this by-election at the town/parish/community council level did catch my eye:

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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