The Mystery Pollster blog has a good summary of the latest poll findings in Iowa, the first state to vote in the procedure for selecting Democrat and Republican candidates for next year’s American Presidential election:
The big problem, particularly in Iowa, is the way a close race (especially for the Democrats) combines with wide variations in “likely caucus goer” methodology to thoroughly confuse everyone. And for good reason. Consider the screen shot from our Iowa Democrats chart (below) which shows the results for Obama (yellow), Clinton (purple) and Edwards (red) over the last two months (the light blue grid lines are 5 percentage points apart). Forget the lines, for the moment and look at the points. They are all over the place.