Super Tuesday: straws in the wind in the US Presidential race

Mitt Romney won yesterday’s low profile Maine caucus. (No Democrat contest.)

In those states where at least one poll has taken place post-Iowa, McCain is ahead in thirteen, Romney in just two. On the Democrat side, it is thirteen-three in Clinton’s favour over Obama. For both Romney and Obama one of the states they are leading in is their home state.

A (near) knock-out result is more likely on the Republican than Democrat side when more than half of the US goes to the polls on Tuesday, as the Republicans have “winner-takes-all” primary election rules. On the Democrat side generally more proportional rules means just losing in a state can still win you delegates and so the gap in delegate numbers between the candidate who triumphs on Tuesday and the one who doesn’t is likely to be much smaller on the Democrat side.

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