Sarkozy narrows the gap in Presidential contest with implications for British tax debates

Incumbent French President Nicolas Sarkozy is still most likely to lose the French Presidential election, but he’s been closing the gap in the opinion polls.

Having been consistently behind in the polling for the contest’s first round, since mid-March polls have often shown him in the lead. Since the first poll to put him ahead, nine have shown him out front and eight have put the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande in front. All of the last four have put Sarkozy ahead.

That, however, is the first round picture. The top two candidates will go through to a second round, and here the polling still shows Hollande ahead.  Those last four polls putting Sarkozy ahead in the first round still have Hollande winning in the second round by between six and ten points.

The second round gap has closed slightly and the boost of pulling out a first round win could further close it. Whilst Hollande is still the favourite to win, the nerves in his camp and the hopes in Sarkozy’s camp are both on the rise.

And the implication of all this for British politics? Who runs France matters directly, of course. Hollande’s policy manifesto gives the contest an extra importance, for he is pushing a new, high rate of income tax for the richest in France: 75%.

Win or lose, the ease with which people will subsequently be able to say, “Well, of course look what pushing for a higher tax rate on the rich did to Hollande’s election campaign…” means the outcome will become a favourite debating point in British politics when discuss turns yet again to how best to tax the rich.