+++ Neck and neck: first Eastleigh constituency poll

That 3 point gap is within the margin of error on the poll, and so it is, as they say in the US about such results, a statistical dead-heat.

What is clear is that this is a contest between Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. Nigel Farage was right it would seem to back out of fighting the seat – and Labour too are clearly out of it in Eastleigh.

The Labour vote share is particularly interesting as we’ll see how well the party can do at squeezing a clearly third-place Labour in a Parliamentary by-election. The pre-2010 record is of course very good and early signs about the Labour campaign are promising:

The Liberal Democrat candidate is being selected at the weekend – and my money is on it being none of the people Guido has tipped…

That doesn’t mean you have to wait to help however:

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