Here’s what YouGov’s polling of party members makes of the Liberal Democrat leadership contest between Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne:
Voted so far: 52%
Margin of error: +/- 3.8%
- The 56-44 lead for Clegg already reported is based on excluding the don’t knows. This is the usual method for calculating headline figures, though with such a high level of undecideds in this case the raw figures should also be looked at to understand the overall picture, especially as…
- Assuming that no-one who has voted is undecided, 50% of those who have not voted yet are undecided.
- The margin of error does not take into account any systematic sampling errors, e.g. YouGov’s Liberal Democrat members sample may (or may not) over-represent activists and therefore might not be representative of the party membership overall. And then again it might be.
- There was only one published YouGov poll in the last leadership election. It took place before Chris Huhne’s entry into the race and also took place a significant period of time before votes were cast. It therefore doesn’t provide a useful guide to how accurate or not YouGov might be this time. They have a good track-record with Conservative internal elections, but not with Labour.