New poll shows excellent Lib Dem chances in 8 Tory-held seats

The Tory lead over the Liberal Democrats in eight key marginal seats held by David Cameron’s party has gone up by only 1% since 2010 according to the latest marginal seats poll by Lord Aschroft.

In 2010 the Tories won the eight seats of ¬†Watford, St Albans, Oxford West & Abingdon, Harrogate & Knaresborough, Camborne & Redruth, Truro & Falmouth, Newton Abbot and Montgomeryshire¬†with a 2% lead over the Lib Dems. In the new poll, that lead is now 3%, well within the poll’s margin of error and with a significant amount of Labour voters still willing to consider voting tactically for the Liberal Democrats.

One tricky finding from the poll for the Lib Dems is that the four most important issues to voters in those seats are economy/jobs, the NHS, immigration and education. That makes the party’s current review of its immigration policy all the more important – and is a reminder of why the party is focusing so heavily on jobs at its Glasgow conference.

Also worthy of note is the edge – but only small edge – in volume of local campaigning activity that voters in these seats report between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. For example, 41% recall having had a Lib Dem leaflet in the past few months with the Conservatives on 36%. That gap is small – and the 46% is low for a marginal seat with a full-on operation. It is a reminder of just how much activity needs to happen before voters start remembering it.

Full details of the poll are here.

One response to “New poll shows excellent Lib Dem chances in 8 Tory-held seats”

  1. This is undoubtedly good news for the Lib Dems. I have long held the view that the Lib Dem vote will suffer in Lib Dem/Labour marginals, but will hold up strongly in Lib Dem/Tory marginals. This is strong evidence for that view. I can even see a situation where Lib Dems offset some of their losses to Labour by winning back some seats from the Tories. The Lib Dems are probably going to lose seats in 2015, let’s hope they don’t lose too many.
    This Ashcroft poll was also good news for Labour, showing a strong swing towards Labour in the set of 40 most marginal Tory held seats, In the Tory/Labour marginals in the poll, Labour enjoys a good lead, CON 29%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11%, in a set of seats that the Tories won with a 3% margin in 2010. Let’s remember that Labour only need to win 24 of those Tory seats, for Labour and the Tories to be tied in parliament. Who would argue that Labour won’t easily do that, and more, in 2015, based on this polling?
    Of course we’re still far from the election, and there is plenty of time for the polls to change. But I think a hung parliament with Labour as the biggest party is still the most likely outcome of 2015.

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