US government shutdown shows the dangers ahead for UK Conservatives

There are many factors behind the US government shutdown and even imminent threat to start defaulting on its debts. One however is crucial explaining the failure so far to reach a deal in a way that has almost always happened in the past. It’s the source of electoral pressure on Republicans.

The nature of the US electoral system – especially its heavily gerrymandered election boundaries that make constituencies boundaries look like random doodles of super-fidgety child (see the Ilinois ‘pair of headphones’ district if you don’t know what I mean) – means that for most Republicans the electoral fear is not defeat by a Democrat in a public election but defeat by a more right-wing opponent in a primary selection battle.

It’s a handy reminder of why primaries are not a simple cure-all for problems with political systems, and also explains why so few are willing to make a deal with the President. It isn’t floating voters who like to see politicians work together productively they need to appeal to; it’s right wing activists who think in scary numbers that Obama is a foreigner, a Muslim and a communist.

Here in the UK, there is a similar problem facing the Conservative Party. For many of its MPs, a combination of first past the post and socially polarised voting means that the only real fear they have of being defeated in a vote is in a re-selection meeting not at a polling station. It pulls them right because that is where the support they need for their personal political careers rests, even though it is the wrong direction to head in for their own party’s political future.