Matthew Goodwin, one of the co-authors of the excellent Revolt on the Right (see more and buy it here), has put together a list of the five Labour seats which are most under threat from UKIP at the 2015 general election in his view.
- Great Grimsby
- Plymouth Moor View
- Ashfield (though he seriously underrates the Liberal Democrat chances in this seat)
- Dudley North
See Matthew’s reasoning behind each seat over in The Independent, though of course, the more people talk about UKIP’s chances of winning, the more scrutiny the party gets – and it often doesn’t come out well from that scrutiny.
UPDATE: As for seats held by the Conservatives, Thanet South now looks to be the most interesting given Nigel Farage’s likely candidacy there.
UPDATE 2: A list of UKIP’ dozen target seats has now been leaked. They are South Thanet, North Thanet, Boston and Skegness, Great Grimsby, Eastleigh, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Forest of Dean, Aylesbury, Great Yarmouth, East Worthing and Shoreham, Thurrock and Portsmouth South. Only one of these – Great Grimsby – is Labour held, but it is indeed the top one in the list of five above.