What will the impact be of MPs’ expenses on turnout?

From one of the latest YouGov polls:

Does the expenses scandal…
Makes me more likely to vote at the coming election, to express my anger at the way some politicians have behaved 14%
Makes me more likely NOT to vote, because politicians are much the same, and I don’t trust any of them any longer 12%
Net: +2%
Make no difference, I will vote anyway 64%
Make no difference, I will NOT vote anyway 5%
Don’t know 5%

The usual caveats apply that this is only one poll and also that people are often more likely to give what is seen as a socially acceptable answer than to actually behave that way. However, whilst that is often a problem for polls about how many people will vote or reasons for not voting, in this case saying you’ll be more likely to vote doesn’t particularly have a social acceptability edge over other answers.

So whilst the 64% of people saying they will vote at the next election should be taken with a slight pinch of salt (though even so that is a pretty promising figure), the balance between the first two (statistically tied) options gives good ground for thinking that the MPs’ expenses scandal won’t depress turnout.

Other questions in the poll also reinforces what I wrote last autumn about the then polling evidence:

So what are the lessons for campaigners?

First, don’t underestimate the degree to which even MPs who haven’t been caught up at all in the scandal will still have to battle to avoid public disapproval.

[Point two made redundant by the passage of time]

Third, there is likely to be a lot of mileage in campaigning for a system of recall for MPs so that in extreme cases the public can put their future to a vote ahead of a general election.

Fourth, an awful lot of energy and imagination is going to need to go in to rebuilding the public’s confidence in our political system.

A footnote: an oddity of the YouGov poll is that it seems to take forward planning a little too far as one question says, “Irrespective of how you intend to vote (or have already voted by post), which of the following statements do you think…” Having already voted by post before the postal ballots have been issued or the election even called? That’s going some.