Alistair Darling: how wild a conspiracy theory do you want, or is it just about the Budget?

So, how to explain what Alistair Darling has been up to with his comments about Number 10 unleashing the forces of hell on him?

Let’s go for the carefully plotted conspiracy theories first (warning: may contain irony).

Explanation number one: it’s all a clever plot to make sure the Conservatives win the general election and are then crippled for a generation by having to carry out huge spending cuts. After all, look at the damage winning in 1992 did to the Conservative Party in the long run. This is a consistent, long-term and well thought out plot of course because each time Labour starts having a half-decent patch, have you noticed how a self-inflicted wound appears? Polls are narrowing – quick, launch a plot to oust Brown! Polls are narrowing – quick, get top Cabinet minister to slag off Number 10! And so on back through the years. The chronological pattern is a superb fit.

Explanation number two: it’s all a clever plot to show up David Cameron. Think about it. Think how often when, served up with a Labour crisis on a plate, he’s hit the wrong note – particularly at PMQs. What better way to make David Cameron seem like an old-fashioned, strident, boorish politician than keep on serving up crises for him? Only a fool wouldn’t be so short-termist as to think Labour crises harm Labour; it’s the Conservatives who are the real losers.

Explanation number three: Alistair Darling is an undercover agent for an international neo-con conspiracy determined to hound Labour out of office. On this basis, of course, quite a few members of the Cabinet are also fellow conspirators, but hey what sort of conspiracy is it that can’t thoroughly infiltrate high places?

So, conspiracy theories to one side, is there any half-decent explanation? Perhaps it’s all about the budget. There have been plenty of previous, er…, polite discussions between Darling and Brown over economic policy. But by making clear what a bloody catastrophe trying to overrule Darling would be – and how Darling is quite prepared to shaft Brown’s assistants – Darling is placing himself is a very strong position to get the budget that he wants.