YouGov founder: “don’t write off the Lib Dems”

Stephan Shakespeare, a founder and global CEO of YouGov, has been looking at the details of his firm’s polling data:

Looking at wider voting considerations – rather than stated voting intentions – suggests the Liberal Democrats have the potential to exceed expectations.

He says that because, although his polling puts the party on 7%, that rises to 19% when the question is whether people would definitely or probably vote for the party in future.

The boost between the normal voting question and the second question is biggest for the Liberal Democrats, leading Stephan Shakespeare to conclude:

What this suggests to me is that the Lib Dems have the most opportunity for improvement. People who in the past would have voted for them are still angry at them, and want to withhold their endorsement. But in an election where there’s a real likelihood they will end up in government, and where they will credibly claim they will have a ‘softening’ influence on whichever party wins, it strikes me as unlikely they will face anything near the collapse currently predicted by the polls.