Why I’m always sceptical about “group X could tip the election in Y marginal seats” reports

My scepticism is based in a very simple bit of chronology.

We get lots of ‘group X are vital in Y marginal seats’ reports.

And they nearly all appear before an election.

Before.

Then when the results are in, silence falls.

Because most of them turn out to be vastly over-hyped when put into the context of all the other things that have determined the election result just seen.

They’re great for securing uncritical headlines. They’re just not so good at telling you what is actually going to happen.