Political

YouGov puts Lib Dems second, all three parties within margin of error

Time to say, “Oh sod it” to the usual rule on of not reporting individual polls on headline voting intentions given the dramatic fallout from the first televised party leader debate:

Conservative: 33%
Liberal Democrat: 30%
Labour: 28%
Others: 9%

Fieldwork: 15-16 April

The last time the party was this high in the polls was after Sarah Teather’s victory in the Brent East by-election, when YouGov made it Conservative 32%, Labour 31%, Lib Dem 30% and ICM had all three parties tied on 31%.

The next round of phone calls between party press officers and the media could be quite fun. What was that about giving the third-placed party less media coverage?

Of course, in the past poll surges have come and gone – but that’s been when they’ve been triggered by a one-off event, such as a by-election victory, with the political agenda then moving on. After the Brent surge the news quickly moved on to the Labour and Conservative Party conferences. This time though the next ‘big event’ is another debate – with again equal prominence and equal air time.

A curious detail from the poll:

How much difference did the leaders’ debate make to how you will cast your vote at the general election?
A lot – I have changed how I would vote in the light of the leader’s debate: 5%

I wonder if the full details will reveal that there has been a big impact on the likelihood to vote scores for Lib Dem supporters.

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